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It’s Coming…Probably Sooner Than Later
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An ATP rating is a sophisticated IFR checkride. Single Engine. Too dangerous to fly multi-engine and not have a co-pilot all the time to exercise those engine out skills also. Back when I was flying if there was an engine failure in a single the chances of a fatal were one in ten, in a multi, one in three.
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Hi Jon, impressive flight career! I’m a little more of a newbie, I bought my first plane in 2004 and learned to fly after I bought it. LJ 35-A ………I know, I know, not the typical first airframe.
My co-pilot(who taught me)has over 25,000 hrs in commercial service and 7,000 hrs in this type. Which I think is Very important as older LearJets are kinda squarely!!!
Every time I tank up the Prevost (250 gal) I just smile becouse it doesn’t burn 200gal per hr.
Best
T.
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Now everyone knows why a steam gauge guy like me is a hard sell on the push button technology.
It is going to break and when it does the fit hits the shan.
My heroes are the pilots that started as freight dogs, went to flying Beech 99’s with auto-pilots (that was the co-pilot) and did their flying in the lousiest weather in the country. Ask Tom about western NY weather.
But it was the best place to learn and use those skills.
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Western NY were Jon and I hail from has some of the nastiest weather in the country to fly in. Without an instrument rating, forget it, unless you were just the 1000 hamburger guy. Of course we’re just old guys that learned to navigate with just the basic steam gauges and we could actually nail our position with 2 VOR radials. When I got LORAN C and DME I thought I was in Star Wars….
Gotta admit though, the navigation today is unbelievable, wish I was still flying with that glass hickee you guys have.
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Million Mile Battery Life? Another piece of the puzzle.
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Wow! It’s here! It’s arrived. Hats off to Elan Musk.
My thoughts on the autonomous driving car. I’ve had my pilots license since the month after high school. Private license evolved into seaplane rating, instrument rating, and commercial (SEL). I built some time, had some fun, charmed the ladies, and have been inactive for a long time.
I started out with a simple panel, got my instrument rating without any autopilot, and learned to fly ADF approaches. I thought a sophisticated panel had a second ADF and a steam gauge DME.
I look at all the “fancy stuff” whether in an aircraft or a vehicle is nothing more than a pilot or driver aid or assisting tool.
Cruise control in the car, truck, or bus is probably the oldest driver assist tool we’ve had available to us. I use it all the time. Once I’m above 25mph in most situations my cruise is engaged. I tap my speed up and tap it down. (Driving mostly GM products over the years makes this really easy.) I use it in the coach almost as much as I use it in the car. I like that button under my left hand to disengage the CC.
I’d really like to have access to adaptive cruise that can sense the vehicles ahead of me and if I have adaptive engaged, adjust my speed to match … IF I’ve engaged the match speed feature. If I haven’t engaged that feature, give me a series of lights that tell me whether there is a closing rate or not. I’ll make my own decisions. I’d find nothing wrong with a red flashing light if the computer determines that given my speed and my deceleration, the speed and deceleration of the vehicle in front of us, and the distance between us will result in some level of contact. After using it for a while, I might leave it on or I might turn it off.
I’d really like to have access to proximity warning devices for the corners of the coach, trailer, or toad. Green light if nothing in the next lane and ample room to move into the lane (ample room would change with speed), amber light if I’m clear but the next vehicle in the lane is too close given my speed, and red light if there is something over there.
BUT … I don’t want to give control of the vehicle (braking or steering) over to the computer for autonomous driving. I’m NOT ready for that … yet. After thousands or tens of thousands installs, millions or tens of millions of miles, and numerous software and hardware upgrades (and evidence that Jon Wehrenberg uses it once in a while) then I might try it. Emphasis on “might”.
I’d be interested in the thoughts of you guys who have lots of time in complex, high performance aircraft with sophisticated autopilots and flight directors and how that technology applies to cars, trucks, and buses. I might be too inexperienced with that fancy stuff and naive, but I don’t think comparing autopilots in aircraft to autonomous driving systems in ground based motor vehicles is a fair comparison.
1999 XLV X-6872, liberty #440 -
Hi Guys,
I’d have to agree with you Dick that comparing car/Truck AP to aircraft AP isn’t really a fair comparison. I compared them earlier only because they are both a tool that should be used by a skilled operator that knows how and when to use it.(and as Jon mentioned keeping the skill sharp so that you can do that).
I went into the autonomous car with the same mindset that you guys have.(I don’t want to relinquish control) After 55,000 miles I am completely comfortable with it and anxious for Tesla to add more features. The car AP is monitoring more items than the aircraft AP. For example if I pass a bicyclist it will show a bicyclist on the graphics and give me a warning. It knows the difference between types of vehicles and shows them correctly. It knows the distance that I am from another vehicle or object and shows that distance correctly on the screen with warnings for short distances. If I disregard the warning it will use braking to prevent me from hitting it. It follows my programmed GPS(similar to aircraft AP) Including lane changes and stop and go traffic without interaction from me. As a tech geek I love this stuff!!!
I’d like to figure out how I can charge the Tesla with regenerative braking when the Jake break is used on the Prevost. This would help with the downhill and cause my car to be fully charged when I arrive at my destinations, basically a free charge. Then use the Tesla battery to back up my house batteries. Unfortunately at the moment you cannot flat tow a Tesla.
best
T.
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There is no question that systems that provide alerts are highly desirable because it is like having a second set of eyes on the road helping out.
But there is still no substitute for driver participation. Use it or lose it is true and I would be willing to make a sizeable wager that the safest drivers have developed and exercise a skill I can only describe as anticipation. If we were talking about a pilot we would say he is always ahead of the plane.
As drivers we theoretically are constantly scanning, not only our gauges, but the road and road environment. We somehow develop the skills to know when a driver ahead will change lanes in front of us, or pull out from a side street or slow or stop suddenly by sensing body language or subtle car changes in speed or lanes.
Call me chicken but when we sit back and let the vehicle we are supposed to be driving assume more and more control I bet we lose that ability.
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Jon, you are chicken.
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Look Mom…no hands! If you watch this until the end you will see it really is safe.
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Look Mom…no hands! If you watch this until the end you will see it really is safe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NxPozpSNF0
Good One Jimbeaux!
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60 Minutes Report On Autonomous Trucks – Aired March 15, 2020
Automated trucking, a technical milestone that could disrupt hundreds of thousands of jobs, hits the road.
Companies are already testing driverless trucks on America’s roads. The technology will bring untold profits, but it may cost thousands of truckers their livelihoods.
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I watched that on 60 minutes and looks like it will be for specific line haul routes only and the dude claimed it would be operational in 2021. I Don’t think we’re at the George Jetson point quite yet. If I was still driving, I wouldn’t be worrying about loss of jobs. The first major accident with fatalities will derail the whole thing anyways.
Andy, your dues will be going up, I thought we already polished this turd.
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I just got a new Jeep Wrangler with ESS. I disabled that crap the same day I got it home. Hard on the starter. And Jeep even had to put a second smaller battery in to make sure there would be enough electrical power to start if you were in start and stop traffic during say rush hour.
I have the Prevost AWARE system in my bus. I don’t like that either. The adaptive cruise control starts slowing you down much farther behind the vehicle in front than it needs to do. It wants to slam on the brakes for no reason on almost every trip every time I take it out. I have talked to some others with it, and they say the same thing. It seems to think you are closer to a vehicle in front of you than you really are or that you are closing on it too fast and gets it’s panties in a bunch and hits the brakes and sounds an alarm. Very annoying. My wife hates it too as a passenger..getting bounced around by heavy brake application that is not needed.
I have a couple of other vehicles with the ESS, adaptive cruise, lane keeping assist, auto braking etc. and don’t like any of it very much. I know how to drive, I don’t need the car to try to take over when it is not needed.
I get warnings when not needed, brakes slamming on for no good reason, beeping and lights flashing because I got too close to the line to suit the computer, but did not cross the line. Not too far from where I live I cross a railroad track that will set off the auto braking on one of the vehicles sometimes because it senses the metal of the rail and thinks it is another vehicle that is stopped.
As to self-driving trucks, and getting rid of the driver…is the truck going to go into the shipping office to find out which dock door to go to? How would it even know where the dock was? Is it able to back into a blind side dock? How does it stop to get fuel while on a trip? How does it check tires, or know if something is wrong with non monitored systems? How are they going to handle ice and snow? How about when a sensor for the abs craps out during a trip. Does it know what to do? I could go on and on, but this is a good start.
I like tech, just not where it is unwelcome and not needed.
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Mark just clearly outlined why Di refused my offer to buy her a new car. Without realizing it the salesman was so gung ho to show all the features on a new Grand Cherokee he never realized she was thinking of all the ways the features were taking control when she did not want to cede control.
She was negative about the purchase when we got back to the dealership, but he killed and buried the deal when he let the car back itself into the parking spot and she watched the steering wheel spinning 60 miles an hour with his hands in the air.
Looks like Tom isn’t ever going to get her 15 or 20 year old cars. She isn’t going to give them up.
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