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It’s Coming…Probably Sooner Than Later
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The Florida Governor signed the bill the other day making these legal.
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I can imagine how this is going to end up.
People with nothing better to do than sit around in their underwear hacking computers will see messing with these as a challenge like was done with a Grand Cherokee demonstration. I don’t know if cell phone jammers could disrupt these driverless vehicles, but since there are mean people out in the world it can become a sport to screw with these vehicles.
I guess my concerns are if driverless technology is so good why aren’t we using that technology on transportation vehicles that are already far more tightly controlled than highway vehicles such as trains and planes?
But motorist can put a little fun in their day also by playing with the truck systems designed to prevent accidents. Those trucks are surely going to have a means of preventing tailgating, but anyone who wants to play with that feature only has to pass and pull back into the truck’s lane without leaving much room. I can see the truck braking hard to get the required space between it and the car ahead. That will make it exciting for cars or trucks following the driverless truck.
Blowouts, debris in the road, drunk drivers in other vehicles, pissed off teamsters, highway construction, etc. all raise questions about how these vehicles will cope.
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With the Military drones putting a missile on a target the size of a dinner plate with a remote pilot, remote drivers for the trucks seems doable.
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I’m with Tom on this one. It’s going to happen. One of our large clients has a massive fleet and they have been buying trucks that will follow the leader for years so when it’s all approved they will be ready. Their biggest challenge they say is finding people that want to drive Not dismissing jons concerns if we can land someone on the moon and bring them back we can figure this out as well
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I absolutely buy into the “follow the leader” approach. But I was once in a 200 Prevost caravan from a staging spot near Tucson to an FMCA rally in Las Cruces and I can say we screwed up traffic on a lightly traveled section of interstate and there were a lot of pissed off drivers despite the caravan remaining in the RH lane and driving at least at the speed limit.
Some people are just reluctant to pass. Even a 2 or 3 or 4 truck “follow the leader” convoy has the potential to turn a 2 lane highway into a nightmare.
Then there is the issue of what happens at exits with lights and not all vehicles get through the light, or what happens when a pissed off teamster out of work decides to mess with the following trucks, or just all the every day issues ranging from tires to engine problems to road debris.
If they cannot have a driver less subway train or computer train with no variables why do they think the highways are a better place to test the project?
We all know our buses never have problems or issues with morons on the highway, right?????
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As a follow up and to prove I am not opposed to technology I read an article about “robots” to prepare meals and drinks. I am sure the motivation for developers of the technology and devices is exactly the same as it is for developers of devices and vehicles to assist or eliminate drivers.
In manufacturing we have had robots for decades. We have had “lights off” manufacturing for a long time. First it was numerical controlled (NC) equipment, then computer numerical controlled (CNC) and then that equipment was linked and had the ability to have a number of programs down loaded, and automatic material handling devices would pick out the appropriate sheets of steel or other metals, load the machine, move the pieces between machines and stack the work when it was done.
All this was driven by a need to deal with the lack of available labor or high labor costs.
While I am still opposed to having cars that do things for me, including shifting gears, I know it is coming. I just want to continue being a “driver” as opposed to being a steering wheel holder or passenger.
As long as simple tasks such as handing out Big Macs is being done by people who demand unreasonable wages, or there are shortages of skilled people we are racing headfirst into more and greater use of automation.
I just wish there was a way to eliminate the morons in Washington and replace them with machines that can use logic. To suggest we need artificial intelligence to replace the elected wizards gives them too much credit.
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Again, the number one employment position of a high school graduate is truck driving or driving some form of transport of goods, persons or services. .. the estimate is over 10 million employed ..,.. try that again …. 10 million …. and they are working.
I truly hear the argument in these exchanges yet in the latter years of my business career, I have focused on Governance on Corporate boards. One of the primary policies I try to follow is trying to enforce the concept that “Governance teaches one not to do something even though it is legal.” Many legal acts make sense on the surface … but the underlying consequences can be devastating.
The primary issue here is one of a similar nature. Those developing the self driving concepts will be long gone and hard to find when the effects of their actions are felt…. good or bad. I personally by far would rather have 10 million employed truck drivers than have to deal with 10 million unemployed college graduates with degrees that are basically unusable.
From my view, I would rather address the issues at hand rather than try to prove a point. We need to be employing people at this point in our economic lives rather than developing ways that reduce the work force. These persons will not be “retrained” … that has never worked in our history …
Just respectfully saying,
Pres
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Just to be clear Pres, the role of business is not to provide jobs. It is to make a profit so its stakeholders benefit.
Businesses embrace labor saving opportunities because unlike people who want big wages for jobs that require no skills or training, who get sick, who become workmen’s comp problems, or who are unreliable automation eliminates those issues.. We know machines and technology (that is sorted) out eliminates labor hours, is reliable, has consistent quality, and as a consumer I am confident you will not pay a penny more for something if it is available for less. I also believe if you are an investor in companies you focus on the bottom line and not job creation. Technology has its place and it has certainly raised the standard of living for many.
I know technology is going to move the drivers of today into the role of monitors who are supposed to make sure their vehicles are doing what they are supposed to do, but I cannot get my brain wrapped around that concept because I am seeing how over 300 people are dead because Boeing shoved an automated system down 737 operator’s throats as a response to pilots losing their skills as automation took away their hands on operation of aircraft. And if we cannot get it right with planes that operate in a tightly controlled environment we sure are going to have serious issues with vehicles on the highways.
Worse, we will reach the point where driver skills will erode or be lost and nobody is willing to talk about how they are going to deal with that. The FAA is at that point right now and recognized flying involves basic skills and not just pushing buttons. If the technology is so well developed why aren’t we having driverless commuter trains that don’t begin to have to deal with the variable our highways present?
And just to bring this whole topic home, is there anyone out there in Prevost Community land that is totally satisfied the skills are present to maintain complex vehicles that aren’t so sophisticated they can do tasks expected of a driver? Can anyone imagine how difficult it is going to be to find the needed skill levels to maintain vehicles with the sophistication and technology to assume more driver functions? Who is willing to be the test driver on a bus whose systems make it turn when it isn’t supposed to, or not stop when it is supposed to or go a route it cannot drive on, or that cannot maintain control when some kid is playing with a cell phone jammer in the next car?
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Who is willing to be the test driver on a bus whose systems make it turn when it isn’t supposed to, or not stop when it is supposed to or go a route it cannot drive on, or that cannot maintain control when some kid is playing with a cell phone jammer in the next car?
Jon, I’m just curious. Does your Corvette have OnStar?
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Disabled until my GPS wouldn’t find itself and kept thinking it needed to direct me to where I wanted to go with a starting point in Mexico. It’s on now, but there was a 5000 mile gap where it was defeated by removing the cell communications device.
Why the question because other than tracking my every move, speed, etc. it doesn’t do any thing to assist driving?
BTW, I see On-Star as a threat. I was in heavy traffic once and a voice is in my ear telling me my driving record was available for review. I almost jumped out of my skin because it was unexpected. The second time it happened another voice said my maintenance history was available. The car didn’t have 1000 miles on it at the time.
GM packages our destination history and bundles it with data from other cars and sells that information. The On-Star driving data is available to police, lawyers, insurance companies and the car dealer to determine if your driving habits void the warranty.
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This fits in the discussion, One of the NHRA top fuel Dragsters sponsor this weekend
“Your Car your data .org” ( could not copy and paste)
Jim
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Why the question because other than tracking my every move, speed, etc. it doesn’t do any thing to assist driving?
I asked as you’ve made a few statements about your concerns that someone could hack an autonomous vehicle. While OnStar has the ability to remotely slow a vehicle, I don’t remember if anyone has used that system recently to hack a moving vehicle.
In terms disconnecting the navigation system, doesn’t OnStar use a built-in CDMA connection to track whereabouts? If so, and if you have concerns, you may want to disconnect that too.
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GM has run so much through the On-Star brain such as GPS, air bags, etc. it cannot be disabled without defeating a lot of devices. The dealer doesn’t even know all that is impacted by On-Star disconnecting. I’m presuming all cars today are using similar systems.
The Corvette is pure however to the extent is has no features such as lane change alert, adaptive cruise control, self parking, etc. But it has a ton of computer power to allow the car to be driven on a wet figure out skid pad with the driver’s foot to the floor. It will not spin the tires or skid or spin. Very scary to mash your foot to the floor coming out of a figure 8 turn and realize all you have to do as a driver is steer. But at the other end of the spectrum all stability control systems can be turned off and the driver has no assistance from the car’s computers and he has sole responsibility to maintain control.
I do not know if those systems can be hacked, or blocked.
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Jon,
I understand clearly your comment about businesses making a return for stakeholders. That is well said.
What I was trying to state and perhaps did not do so as clearly as I intended was Governance often tries to prevent actions that long term are more damaging than beneficial even though they were legal and seemed logical to do at the time.
Applying this concept to the effort of developing driver-less trucks / vehicles is obvious from my view. I am certain that is understood as well. Ten million drivers represent a lot of households and with the issues of thousands upon thousands of younger people looking for jobs with degrees that have little application to maintaining or increasing economic productivity, it is my belief transportation businesses would benefit more by developing processes and procedures to more effectively transport the goods and services required in this muti- trillion dollar economy. I do not see these vehicles as contributing.
Electric cars seem like a fine idea … yet the actual implementation of and development of them into our society are anything but givens …. some are great products …..and there are stakeholders with billions in bonds backed by smoke and mirrors at this time that hope they survive… need I name the company?
I believe driver less vehicles replacing jobs will be an even harder journey.
Great discussion. I am always impressed by the diversity of thought among this super group.
Respectfully,
Pres
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Pres, I suspect if we can have a chat, face to face we are going to find almost 100% agreement on our views. I am convinced however our government couldn’t create a single new job, or improve the life of private sector employees because it sole purpose is the re-election of the wizards who are buying our votes. Our opinions are worthless. If they were valued over the businesses that line the pockets of the political factions we wouldn’t be getting robo calls.
If the government stands behind driverless trucks for example it is going to count the lost votes from displaced drivers and not be proactive in pushing that concept, but if the general public decides it wants to be in a self driving car so it can continue to talk on the cell phone then the government will be behind it.
Look at how the various government entities are standing behind pot and its various types of use. Since businesses do not vote you know it will not be long before pot smokers will find it legal to own and smoke pot everywhere. But as a business owner we wouldn’t hire anyone that tested positive, but my business never was allowed in the voting booth.
I even have mixed feelings about this technology getting shoved down my throat. Am I better off letting vehicles drive themselves because they don’t get drunk or high? There is no clear correct answer.
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