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Future Coach Market Value
Does anyone have a feel or want to way in on what Coaches might sell for in the next 13-15 months. I would like to get a general feel for the way the Group feels.
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21 Replies
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What coaches? New, Used? What manufacturer? Slides or not?
There is no answer available for the question you asked. If you are just trying to compare what a coach is selling for today compared to a year from now, they will likely already have been sold!
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Seller’s market is coming to an end.
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I have been watching RV sales for the past 10 years or so, I have no crystal ball but a point of interest for me is Craigslist and my Local RV store. Both have huge inventories now.
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If you have a well maintained coach with good records,with nice updates I believe it will sell for good money. These RV stores with staples and plastic that bearly get off the lot will have plenty of inventory.
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The purchase or selling price of coaches is influenced by so many factors, both those controlled by the parties involved, and those factors nobody can control, anyone that can answer the question is either a liar or is about to become the riches person in the world.
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Believe the correct answer is: prices will either go up, down or stay the same!
Pardon me while I go purchase the “guaranteed” winning Lotto ticket! 🙂
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Michael: Within what context are you asking the question?
I’m on a number of Prevost orientated Facebook pages, some that list coaches for sale. I’ve been observed the following:
1. People are posting that they find a coach they like, converse with the owner, broker, or dealer, in a short time decide to make an inspection trip, and then find out the coach is SOLD. It seems like the frequency of this happened as picked up.
2. We have a 99 Liberty XL45, so when I see a coach for sale that is amid to late 90’s XL I take special note of the price; knowing that “list price” and actual sale price are often two different things. I’m seeing asking prices that I think are more aggressive recently than what I saw a year or more ago. I know what we paid for our 99 in 2014 and I’ve concluded it probably has not gone down in value (in eight years).
The market for Prevost conversions is small. Any significant increase in demand will move the prices up. Any event or events that decrease demand will likely push prices down. That said, I think that more and more people are seeing the “value” in owning a Prevost conversion versus an alternative RV or motorhome. So I think there is increased demand, which is probably across the entire spectrum of vintages, chassis styles, chassis generations, and converters.
I wish we had better contemporaneous, reliable data on actual listings for sale (whether FSBO broker, or dealer) and the demographics of owners, buyers, and seller. Are the average and median ages of the owners increasing? Staying the same? or Falling?
IMHO rarely do Prevost owners financially shoehorn themselves into their coaches. Many pay cash. For the most part a national recession, or stock market crash, or general inflation, or rising fuel prices are not going to push enough current owners to sell their coaches to materially impact the used coach market.
The unknown and indeterminate events that impact pricing of our coaches over the next year could move prices up 5% or down 5%, but I don’t see the values moving up considerably nor I see the bottom dropping out of the used Prevost market like we could see with the bubble that I think was created during the pandemic of people buying RVs who were new to RV’ing and who when get pinched a little will be quick to see them.
I do see significant increased demand for Prevost motorhome conversions with bunks (and not necessarily entertainer coaches). Demand that I don’t think was there during the last ten yeas I’ve closely followed this market. Significant price increases in bunk coaches would not surprise me.
This all takes me back to what Jon Wehrenberg said to me when I asked his advice while looking for a coach: if you really want a coach and you find the “right one” for you and you think the price is right, buy it. Which is what we did and I’ve never regretted that decision.
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Nice write up Dick, does anyone have an idea how many Prevost Bus Conversions (motorhomes) are still out on the road? 5K?, 10?
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Both Tom and I should know how many motor home conversions are on the road, but I do not and Tom likely does not know either. Prevost is reluctant to share what they know because they have always screwed with their VINs so competitors like MCI would never know true production quantities.
But after keeping my nose in the market for 32 years, watching coach for sale listings from multiple sources, and going through booms and busts I do know nobody can predict future pricing. Who saw the economic disaster around 2007/2008? Every converter took a bath, and owners who had stretched to buy their coach found their coach market value floating the drain, and the market filled with repos and converter new coach inventory almost impossible to unload.
When fuel hit $50 per gallon prior to this period of high prices customers dried up and owners of brand new coaches were suggesting they would use their coaches less due to fuel prices. This is significant because it show how irrational buyers can be. If someone was willing to use their coach less because fuel was expensive it seems downright stupid because depreciation on their new coach, not being used or used less could be $1000 per day. The Prevost coach market is not rational so predictions about future prices and conditions are likely unpredictable.
One constant that Dick noted in his remarks above is if a potential buyer has that eureka moment and has found the coach of his dreams, he should not hesitate to buy it. Good coaches, especially those with detailed records and a history of good care move fast. It is the dogs of the marketplace that are listed for months. Personally if I am looking to buy a coach, I find one I really like, I am less concerned about its cost than if it meets our needs, and we like it. I don’t flip coaches so over time even if I spent $50,000 more than average market price my financial beating becomes almost irrelevant. I assume my purchase will depreciate to zero value and that depreciation is just one of the costs of ownership.
It is you the buyer who has to decide do you like bragging about how cheap your purchase was, are you going to keep it or flip it, is it the way you want it or are you going to dump dollars you will never see again to change the color of the carpeting, or are you going to be happier knowing you got the bus best suited for you?
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I did my original post in April as to the Forum’s thoughts on Coach pricing with the current state of the economy. I would like to get some new opinions on the current market. It appears that the recession is in the offing and it is going to be severe in my opinion. We seem to be trapped in a wage, price spiral and costs are going to continue to go up as more and more income and savings are going to be spent on food, fuel and servicing debt. I know Prevost owners have means and resources to afford to own and operate a Coach but even these owners will have their limits. Does anyone have a feel for the current Coach market and what they might expect in buying and selling by this time next year. I am only asking for opinions as a discussion item as I am always interested in smart peoples opinions. My father in law always said you have two ears and one month use them in the same proportion. I want to listen and learn. Thanks to all
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A Prevost conversion is a toy. It is not an investment. It is a big, obvious way to demonstrate how quickly you can piss money away.
Buying a Prevost is never going to be considered smart. No matter how much you study the market, how astute you are at spotting trends and acting on them, it is one of the dumbest purchases any of us can make, except for one thing. It is a lifestyle without parallel. If you find one you really like buy it regardless of the cost. Then use the hell out of it. You will end up with a permanent smile. You will meet a lot of really great people. It becomes a lifestyle unmatched on a golf course, ski slope, jet to Europe, or almost any other past time..
But if you are motivated by worry about where the market will be when you pull the trigger you need to find another hobby because if you think the price is important, wait until you figure out the cost of a tank of fuel, the cost of maintenance, insurance, depreciation and repairs, and everything else associated with ownership.
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Michael-
Just an opinion here. If there is a recession, the coach industry, like most industries would be affected. How much is anyone’s guess. Prevost in my opinion represents a paragon of excellence. Not just “luxury” but real build quality. I didn’t buy one to impress anyone, I bought one because I honestly felt they were the best built, safest bus one could own. And no matter what the economy does, excellence will always be desirable, and therefore command a good price. Fuel costs currently are a real issue. Few can roll in and out of a fuel station and drop $1500. without at least saying Wow! But you can drive less right now, and still enjoy the coach, I know I do. Just looking at it is a joy to me.
In my search, I found buses that usually fit into one of two categories. 1) the bus was getting older, and the owner wanted something newer, so they were trading up and selling their previous coach. 2) the owner was getting older and using the bus less and less and felt it was time to pass it on. The pricing over the 2+ years I spent looking was pretty constant.
I think the future market value will continue to be more of a bus to bus situation, year, condition, mileage, etc. than an over reaching economy trend. There may be fewer people willing to buy a bus during situations like the current fuel extortion scheme the petroleum industry is staging right now. And with fewer buyers, there may be an increase in the number of available coaches, which of course could affect the price. So if you’re not in a hurry, waiting a little while may be a good move. But if you know what you want, and if the bus of your dreams rolls by, I wouldn’t wait too long.
As it’s been said, getting the bus is just the first expense, keeping the bus is an ongoing expense and it can be sizable, depending on the mechanical condition, amount of use, level of insurance, etc. etc. But if you buy an older bus and take good care of it, they tend to hold their value pretty well in my opinion.
2000 Featherlite H3-45
2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee
Leesburg, FL -
Michael, folks that have been around RV’s for any length of time quickly realize they are not a financial investment. If you have the money, buy what you like and enjoy it. If you are worried about spending money, any and all RV’s are not for you. Some folks find this out the hard way, you just have to read on the fabulous Forum.
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Michael what part of the market are you considering?
Mid to late 90’s XL’s? Up to $200,000.
Post 2000 XLII’s? $300,000 to 400,000
More recent? More expensive?
From what I was told and saw The Financial Crisis of 2008 temporarily crushed the luxury motorhome market. The converters stopped getting orders new coaches, some owners who lost money in the stock market were pressed to sell their coaches, potential buyers either didn’t have the resources to buy or sat on the sidelines, and the used coach market was very soft.
We started out search in 2010. Some of the coaches we looked at had sat since 2007/2008 and looked/smelled like it. We finally bought in early 2014 just as the market was coming back and prices were firming for mid to late 90’s coaches.
Over the time period you indicate, you might find a highly motivated seller who has the shorts real bad and you could get a discounted price. Emphasis on “might” and “could”. But I would expect the competition for that coach to be pretty stiff.
Rather than trying to time the market, I’d try to find (1) a coach “we” like, (2) one that fits “our” mission, (3) that I can understand how its been maintained, and (4) is priced to reflect any deferred maintenance or upcoming service work or replacement of aged out components.
I don’t study the Prevost market like I did when I was in the market to buy, but I can tell you that the Prevost market for late 90’s XL45’s in Shawano county is very vibrant, prices are strong and expected to stay firm … especially for Liberty Coaches.
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OK I understand what everyone has said. A Prevost is a luxury and I know it is a lifestyle, and I know it is a money pit. I get it; it is much like a recreational desire not an investment. Much like an airplane, luxury car, summer cabin. We purchase these not as investments but as life enhancers.
That being said my mother said “any dam fool can pay full price”, and that always stuck with me. Something is only worth what some else will pay for it. Right now there are approx, give or take 150 Prevost’s for sale on another site and approx. 50 on this site, some overlap sure and more Prevosts for sale on other web sites. I am figuring I will be putting 50K into a Coach to do upgrades on the Coach I purchase and really don’t want to buy my “dream Coach” as you all put it at the high and still put the money into it if I don’t have to. All I am asking is are we entering a buyers market after years of a sellers market? As we all know financing a Coach has its limits and the cost of money is going up. Real Estate values are falling, retirement accounts are taking a hit, fuel is rising, Americans are getting squeezed on all ends and are the potential buyers becoming more limited for a Coach than in the past and are we entering a darker period for Coach sales and is this the time to buy or wait? Cash is King and will there be the Cash buyers needed to support the Coach market? There is never a perfect Coach, no matter how you look at it if one gets away there is another one behind it coming on the market. Just looking for an honest appraisal, where is the market headed? Right now it appears the housing market will be soft and a reduction in selling prices, depending on the area of the country, of 26% to 40% and I can’t change that just because I own a home. It is what it is; I am realistic knowing my house, my vacation home, my rental properties are all worth less today than one year ago; are Coaches in the same boat and where are they headed? I am just looking for an honest appraisal from those who are in the Life Style.
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